000			01179nam a2200157 4500
003			AR-PmCCT
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100			_93932 _aKatz, Richard W.
245			_aExtreme events in a changing climate: _bvariability is more important than averages / _cRichard W. Katz and Barbara G. Brown
260			_c1992
300			_app. 289-302
500			_aClimatic Change 21, 289–302 (1992).
520			_aExtreme events act as a catalyst for concern about whether the climate is changing. Statistical theory for extremes is used to demonstrate that the frequency of such events is relatively more dependent on any changes in the variability (more generally, the scale parameter) than in the mean (more generally, the location parameter) of climate. Moreover, this sensitivity is relatively greater the more extreme the event. These results provide additional support for the conclusions that experiments using climate models need to be designed to detect changes in climate variability, and that policy analysis should not rely on scenarios of future climate involving only changes in means.
700			_93933 _aBrown, Barbara G.
942			_2ddc _cSEPA
999			_c3892 _d3892